Three of the video's claims are claims about yields — that investors refuse 3 % (claim 04), that the safe haven is gone (claim 05), that fair value is 4–5 % (claim 09). This page holds the evidence they share: what lending to Germany costs in the long record, what it costs next to Germany's peers, and what the curve implies about the future. Every series is committed and re-buildable — provenance on the dataset page.

§ Y.1 The level, in its long context

The 10-year Bund yield, monthly since 1972. Today's 3.09 % (2026-07-10) is a return to the range that held for decades before 2011 — it was the 2015–2021 negative-yield era, not the present, that was historically exceptional.

Month-end secondary-market yield of the 10-year Bund (Bundesbank term-structure estimate), 1973–2026. The 2020–21 trough is the negative-yield era. Source: Deutsche Bundesbank (BBSIS/ZAR), retrieved 2026-07-11.

§ Y.2 The level, next to the peers

The same 10-year point for France, the Netherlands, Austria and (for scale, in its own currency) the United States. Rates rose everywhere; Germany remains the floor of the set — the premium each peer pays over Bunds is the market's continuous safe-haven vote:

Monthly 10-year government benchmark yields, 2011–2026. DE/FR/NL/AT: ECB harmonised long-term rate; US: Treasury 10Y par yield. Germany (blue) sits at or below its euro-area peers. Sources: ECB Data Portal; US Treasury; retrieved 2026-07-11.

Monthly 10-year yield spread over the German Bund, in basis points, 2011–2026. Every euro-area peer still pays a positive premium to borrow relative to Germany — the safe-haven ordering is intact. Source: ECB Data Portal, retrieved 2026-07-11.

§ Y.3 What the curve says about the future

From the Bundesbank's daily Svensson parameters, the whole term structure on 2026-07-10 — spot rates and the forward rates the curve implies, against the video's 4–5 % “fair value” band. Forwards approach 4 % only at distant horizons; no measure reaches 5 %:

Bund yield curve on 2026-07-10, computed from the Bundesbank's published Svensson parameters: zero-coupon spot rate and instantaneous forward rate by maturity. The market prices forwards reaching ~4% only far out (20–30y); the video's 4–5% band (shaded) sits above today's actual long yields. Source: Deutsche Bundesbank term-structure parameters (BBSIS/ZST), retrieved 2026-07-11.

§ Y.4 The numbers in one table

Sources: Deutsche Bundesbank (BBSIS term structure), ECB Data Portal (harmonised 10Y benchmark yields), US Treasury (daily par yield curve); all retrieved 2026-07-11 and committed in the repository.

Measure	Value	As of
Bund 2Y / 10Y / 30Y	2.63 / 3.09 / 3.6 %	2026-07-10
Peer 10Y — NL / AT / FR / US	3.077 / 3.207 / 3.68 / 4.44 %	2026-06
Spread over Germany — NL / AT / FR / US	+11.3 / +24.3 / +71.6 / +147.6 bp	2026-06
Forward 5y5y / 10y10y	3.507 / 4.008 %	2026-07-10