True kernel: the 10-year auction of 08 Jul 2026 drew bids for only 67.0 % of the offered volume — the weakest 10-year result since November 2011 — and 8 of the 39 Bund auction results of 2026 were technically undersubscribed. What the video omits: this is routine, not new. 111 of 596 Bund auctions since 1999 drew fewer bids than offered — the share was higher in 2015–2019 than it is now, and the all-time low came in August 2019, when investors accepted a negative yield. The “below 50%”, “49%” and “29%” figures match no 2026 Bund auction on any metric — they belong to money-market bills.
§ 1.1 Two ways to count an auction
Concept · Auction mechanicsHow a Bund tender turns offered volume into bids, an allotment and a cleared yield is explained step by step in the primer — long‑and‑short · Auction mechanics (German).
The verdict turns on which count. Three ratios travel under the word “subscribed”: bids ÷ offered volume (the bid-to-offer ratio) can fall below 1.0 — a “technically undersubscribed” auction; the cover ratio the Bundesbank reports as Überdeckung is bids ÷ allotted volume, near or above 1.0 by construction because the issuer allots less than it offered; and the allotment share is a third number again. The video's “percent subscribed” figures switch between them without saying so — the distinction that decides this claim.
§ 1.2 What the recent auctions show
| Date | Issue | ISIN | Offered €m | Bids €m | Bids ÷ Offer | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | Bund 15 Y (R) | DE000BU2F009 | 1,000 | 1,173 | 1.17× | 3.30 % |
| 10 Jun 2026 | Bund 10 Y (R) | DE000BU2Z064 | 5,000 | 6,800 | 1.36× | 3.06 % |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Bund 30 Y (R) | DE0001102614 | 1,500 | 1,447 | 0.96× | 3.49 % |
| 17 Jun 2026 | Bund 20 Y (R) | DE000BU2T000 | 1,000 | 2,117 | 2.12× | 3.40 % |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Bund 30 Y (R) | DE0001135275 | 1,000 | 1,548 | 1.55× | 2.96 % |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Bund 20 Y (R) | DE000BU2T000 | 1,000 | 2,120 | 2.12× | 3.38 % |
| 01 Jul 2026 | Bund 7 Y (R) | DE000BU27014 | 3,500 | 3,083 | 0.88× | 2.68 % |
| 08 Jul 2026 | Bund 10 Y (N) | DE000BU2Z072 | 6,000 | 4,022 | 0.67× | 3.09 % |
§ 1.3 “No longer”? The full record
Technically undersubscribed Bund auctions are as old as the dataset. The share by era:
| Era | Auctions | Avg bids ÷ offer | Undersubscribed | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999–2007 | 70 | 1.63× | 6 | 8.6 % |
| 2008–2014 | 94 | 1.2× | 27 | 28.7 % |
| 2015–2019 | 112 | 1.21× | 35 | 31.2 % |
| 2020–2022 | 103 | 1.36× | 24 | 23.3 % |
| 2023–2025 | 178 | 2.0× | 11 | 6.2 % |
| 2026 | 39 | 1.47× | 8 | 20.5 % |
The weakest Bund auction ever recorded was not in 2026. On 21 Aug 2019, a 30-year auction (DE0001102481) drew bids for just 0.43× the offered volume — at an average yield of -0.11 %. That is: the record undersubscription happened while investors were paying Germany to hold their money, at the peak of safe-haven demand. Undersubscription measures the aggressiveness of the offer at a given price — not whether “anyone wants” the bond.
§ 1.4 The specific numbers in the video
- “Often below 100%” — true in 2026 (8 of 39 results), and equally true of most of the past two decades: 2015–2019 saw 31.2 % of auctions below 1.0×.
- “Some below 50%” — no 2026 Bund auction is anywhere near this; the year's weakest is 0.67×. In the entire 27-year record, exactly two Bund auctions fell below 0.5× — in 2019 and 2022.
- “In March, one at 49%” — and the title's “only 29% subscribed” — the video reads both numbers off an on-screen list of allotment shares (transcript, 03:45–04:25). They are the two 12-month money-market bills auctioned on 09 Mar 2026 — not Bund auctions, and not subscription figures. The “49%” bill (DE000BU0E386) allotted 49.5 % of the offer while drawing bids of 1.87× the offered volume — oversubscribed; the low allotment was the issuer's pricing decision. The “29%” bill (DE000BU0E329) allotted 29.1 % with bids at 0.69×. No 2026 Bund auction shows 49 % or 29 % on any metric.
§ 1.5 Reading the evidence
Undersubscribed Bund auctions occur in every era since 1999 (111 of 596). 2026's share is elevated against the exceptionally strong 2023–2025 period but below the 2008–2014 and 2015–2019 eras. The specific figures “below 50%”, “49%” and “29%” match no 2026 Bund auction in the official record — they are allotment shares of two money-market bills.
The drift of 2026 coverage ratios toward and below 1.0× at 10 years is consistent with a thinner primary-market bid at current yield levels amid record issuance — a real shift worth watching. It is evidence about price, not about the existence of demand: the same auctions placed billions at market yields.
“Nobody wants German bonds anymore” is a rhetorical generalization, tagged as opinion and evaluated here only through the measurable indicators above.