The registry
Every citation on this site resolves here
The dotted citations in the chapters, claims, and dashboard link to the entries below: what the source is, and what it evidences in this note. Every external link was fetched and content-matched before inclusion (July 2026 verification pass); where a primary blocks robots or paywalls its body, the entry says so. That is the provenance rule of this site: no hard number without a named source, no link without a checked target.
Accenture FY2025 results
#accenture-fy2025
'Generative AI new bookings of $1.8 billion for the quarter and $5.9 billion for the year'; transcript: 'we tripled our revenue over FY24 from Gen AI and increasingly agentic AI to $2.7 billion.'
Metaculus · Goodheart Labs · 2026
#agi-forecasts
Live dashboards — figures drift. As of this note's July 2026 research pass: Metaculus community median ~Nov 2033, Goodheart aggregate median 2031, 80% interval 2027–2043 (mid-July reads: Metaculus ~Dec 2032; Goodheart interval 2027–2044).
AI 2027 self-assessment · 2026
#ai-2027
'Progress on quantitative metrics is at roughly 65% of the pace that AI 2027 predicted'; the authors' AGI/full-coding-automation median slipped from 2028 to 2029.
Bain · 2025
#bain-2025
Bain & Company press release, July 15, 2025 (Andrew Ng / AI Aspire partnership announcement).
'Tech- and AI-enabled revenue now comprises approximately 30% of the firm's business, with expectations to grow to 50% in the coming years.' Self-reported, not audited.
BCG · 2024–2026
#bcg-briefings
The 20%→40% trajectory is now realized per BCG's own April 2026 release (bcg.com/press/23april2026-bcg-revenue-22nd-consecutive-year-growth). Self-reported, not audited.
Telegraph / Morgan data · Jun 2025
#big-four-intakes
KPMG −29% (1,399→942), Deloitte −18%, EY −11%, PwC −6%. A competing Times dataset including apprentices runs higher (KPMG ~33%). Caveat: telegraph.co.uk blocks fetch verification — URL and figures cross-confirmed via independent coverage linking this piece.
Bitkom · 2025/26
#bitkom-2026
~109,000 unfilled IT positions in Germany; average 7.7 months to fill a role — a structural shortage coexisting with the junior collapse.
Manager Magazin · 2025/26
#cariad-rivian
The VW–Rivian JV reporting delays: Audi launches pushed to 2028, Porsche's postponed indefinitely, billions in extra costs. The €14B CARIAD cumulative figure is from the research pass; the linked coverage itself cites €6.5B in additional costs. Governance, not vision, was the failure.
press synthesis · Q1 2026
#cowork-shock
~$285B lost in the first 48 hours, growing toward ~$1 trillion over Q1 2026 ('SaaSpocalypse'). Directional trader/press figures, not audited data; the linked piece carries the trillion-dollar magnitude.
Digital Applied · Q1 2026
#digital-applied-2026
Digital Applied, 'AI Coding Tool Adoption 2026: Developer Survey Results' (April 2026).
'Reviewing' overtook 'writing' as the single largest AI-assisted time sink in Q1 2026 (11.4 vs 9.8 median hours/week). Secondary-tier source (own survey).
DORA · 2025
#dora-2025
Google DORA, State of AI-assisted Software Development 2025, n≈5,000.
AI now correlates positively with throughput (a reversal from 2024) but still with increased delivery instability; headline finding: AI is an amplifier of the engineering system it lands in. Also puts workplace AI usage near 90%.
80,000 Hours · Feb 2026
#eighty-k-hours
'The 2028–2032 window might be quite a make-or-break period for developing AGI or recursively self-improving AI' — framed around compute/scaling limits; this note applies it to the agentic-coding question.
Evans, 'AI Eats the World' · May 2026
#evans-2026
~30% of enterprise workloads in public cloud after a decade-plus; enterprise AI still mostly pilots; ~$700B planned 2026 big-four capex with no settled answer on where value accrues (capex figure cross-confirmed in secondary coverage of the deck). The calibration counterweight to the Coasean thesis.
June 2026 export-control episode
#export-control-2026
Confirms the June 12, 2026 Commerce Department order and the worldwide disabling of a frontier model; the order was lifted June 30, 2026.
Faros · 2026
#faros-2026
Median PR review time +441.5%; incidents-per-PR +242.7%.
HBR · Sept 2025
#hbr-obelisk
The obelisk model — replacing the pyramid with a tall, narrow structure of AI facilitators, engagement architects, and client leaders. Body paywalled; terminology confirmed via secondary coverage of the same article.
HFS Research · Nov 2025
#hfs-2025
49% of contracts today tied to staff numbers; only 16% of leaders expect that model within two years; AI-powered delivery projected to triple from 12% to 35%.
HFS Research · 2025
#hfs-sas-2035
'By 2035, HFS projects Services-as-Software to grow into a $1.5 trillion market', absorbing revenue from traditional IT services and SaaS. Single-source projection — tracked on the dashboard, not banked.
FY26 filings · Nifty IT
#indian-it
TCS cut ~23,460 jobs in FY26; top-five firms lost ~46% of combined market cap since Aug 2024; Nifty IT down 20%+ in 2026 — while the sector added net workers overall. The linked piece verifies the TCS figure; the market-cap/index figures are from the research pass.
JetBrains · Jan 2026
#jetbrains-2026
JetBrains AI Pulse survey, January 2026 wave.
"In January 2026, 90% of developers regularly used at least one AI tool at work" — corroborating DORA.
Business Insider · Nov 2025
#mckinsey-birshan
'We're doing more performance-based arrangements with our clients'; about a quarter of McKinsey's global fees now outcome-based. Self-reported at a media event, not an audited disclosure.
METR Time Horizon 1.1 · Jan 2026
#metr-horizon
All-time doubling 188 days; ~130 days (~4.3 months) from 2023 onward. Strongest assessed agents near 16–20h — but METR warns estimates above ~16h are unreliable as the suite saturates.
METR RCT · Jul 2025
#metr-rct
Developers forecast a 24% speedup and estimated 20% after the fact; measured effect was a 19% slowdown. METR abandoned the follow-up in Feb 2026 because near-universal adoption made a clean control group impossible.
NBER w34468
#nber-coasean
AI agents can perform the activities that constitute transaction costs — 'learning prices, negotiating terms, writing contracts, and monitoring compliance' — at very low marginal cost, shifting Coase's make-or-buy boundaries.
modeled estimate (PitchGrade) · Feb 2026
#pitchgrade-2026
Consulting headcount −20–30% by 2030, junior/first-year roles −40–50% from the 2024 peak. Non-authoritative directional estimate by an AI-content site — explicitly NOT a McKinsey or investment-bank forecast; the circulated 'McKinsey 30% by 2030' figure refers to automatable US work hours economy-wide.
Scale Labs (SEAL) · 2026
#scale-seal
Top standardized scores ~52–62% on the contamination-resistant Pro benchmark (third-party vendor aggregates cite up to ~70%) vs. 88–95% on saturated Verified — the benchmark-to-reality gap made measurable; METR estimates only ~half of 'passing' Verified solutions would survive real code review.
SignalFire · 2025
#signalfire-2025
SignalFire, State of Tech Talent Report 2025.
Big Tech new-graduate hiring down more than 50% from pre-pandemic 2019 levels; new grads now just 7% of Big Tech hires (down from 15% pre-pandemic).
Sonar · 2026
#sonar-2026
Sonar, State of Code Developer Survey report 2026.
The top skill developers now cite is 'reviewing and validating AI-generated code for quality and security' (47%).
Stack Overflow · 2025
#stack-overflow-2025
Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2025 — 49,000+ responses across 177 countries.
84% of respondents using or planning to use AI tools (up from 76%); 51% of professional developers use AI tools daily.
Stanford Digital Economy Lab · Nov 2025
#stanford-del
'By September 2025, employment for software developers aged 22–25 declined nearly 20% compared to its peak in late 2022.'
Thoughtworks · 2024
#thoughtworks-2024
~87% stock decline since 2022 preceded the take-private; the completion release confirms deal value and per-share price.
Vaimo, Stockholm · Feb 2026
#vaimo-2026
Vaimo press release (PRNewswire), Stockholm, February 12, 2026.
Formally introduced value-based pricing as an alternative to billable hours: 'time spent is no longer a reliable proxy for value delivered' (CEO David Holender).