The audit
Which of the early-2026 claims survived contact with the evidence
The author published a set of claims about both professions in January–March 2026. This page re-checks them against the July 2026 evidence base — verdicts are Holds, Revise, or Watch. Revising in public is the method, not an embarrassment: a claim that can't be wrong can't be worth anything.
The pyramid gives way to the obelisk: a tall, narrow structure of AI facilitators, engagement architects, and client leaders.
Framing and authorship verified; the industry adopted the term. HBR · Duncan, Anderson, Saviano · Sept 2025
About a quarter of McKinsey's global fees now come from outcome-based pricing.
Confirmed via Michael Birshan, McKinsey managing partner for the UK, Ireland & Israel; self-reported at a media event, not an audited disclosure. Business Insider · Nov 2025
Vaimo formally abandoned billable hours for value-based pricing.
Announced Feb 12, 2026: 'time spent is no longer a reliable proxy for value delivered.' Vaimo, Stockholm · Feb 2026
Thoughtworks lost ~87% of its market value before the Apax take-private at $4.40/share.
Stock decline since 2022 and the 2024 $1.75B take-private both verified. SEC filings · 2024
Accenture booked $2.7B GenAI revenue and $5.9B in GenAI bookings in FY2025.
Verified against investor reporting. Accenture FY2025 results
BCG's AI work rises from ~20% of revenue (2024) toward ~40% (2026).
Verified — and realized: BCG's April 2026 release reports AI/tech services above 40% of 2025 revenue. Self-reported, not audited. BCG investor/media briefings
CARIAD's €14B failure and the ~$5.8B VW–Rivian partnership as the monolithic-subsidiary cautionary tale.
Verified — and the JV is now itself in trouble: Audi/Porsche launches reportedly pushed back years. Governance, not vision, was the failure. Manager Magazin · 2026
AI agents can perform the activities that constitute transaction costs, shifting Coasean firm boundaries.
The NBER working paper and its five authors verified; the thesis now has a real academic anchor. NBER w34468 · Shahidi, Rusak, Manning, Fradkin, Horton
The Claude Cowork shock erased $300B+ in market value.
Understates it: ~$285B in the first 48 hours, growing toward ~$1 trillion over Q1 2026 — the cumulative figure is financial-press synthesis, directional rather than audited. press synthesis · Q1 2026
Consulting headcount declines 15–30% by 2030 (attributed to McKinsey).
Directionally supported but NOT a McKinsey or bank forecast — the circulated '30% by 2030' figure refers to automatable US work hours economy-wide. Keep the direction, fix the attribution. attribution check · modeled estimates only
Indian IT cut 42,000+ jobs.
Needs careful attribution: TCS alone cut ~23,460 in FY26 (its largest ever), and the top firms cut tens of thousands — but the sector added net workers overall while restructuring. FY26 filings · industry data
Services-as-Software grows into a ~$1.5T market by 2035.
Single-source projection; treat as a range and track annually on the dashboard. HFS Research · 2025