About This Project

Realistic Futures of AI is a living research knowledge base that tracks plausible AI development paths from 2025 to 2040. It synthesizes the classical Singularity literature with current technological realities, and uses the result to build evidence-based trajectories rather than predictions in isolation.

Methodology

The project maintains two core documents:

• Baseline Model — the current working assessment of AI capability trajectories, constraints, alignment, and socioeconomic impacts.
• Timeline Predictions — a comparison of AGI, ASI, and Singularity predictions from researchers, industry leaders, and forecasting communities.

Both documents are revised when the evidence warrants it. Weekly research updates track the latest developments and their implications for the model.

Key Principles

• Evidence-based; no hype.
• Distinguish facts from speculation.
• Focus on constraints: compute, energy, economics, governance.
• Track what could invalidate the model.
• Update the baseline when the evidence demands it.

Sources

The project maintains a source registry covering books, papers, articles, forecasts, and public statements cited across the site.

Author

Maintained by Jörn Dinkla. The research draws from the broader AI-Generated blog project.