Realistic Futures
of AI
A living research knowledge base tracking plausible AI development paths from 2025 to 2040. Evidence-based, updated weekly, grounded in constraints.
Software Development Milestones
Plausible Scenarios (2030–2040)
Moderately Accelerating Path
Most ProbableContinued model improvements, increasingly capable agents, AI-integrated teams. Partial AGI-like systems in narrow domains. No runaway recursive self-improvement.
High-Acceleration Path
OptimisticBreakthroughs in architecture or hardware. Rapid progress in tool-form agents. Semi-autonomous research assistants. Significant shift in scientific productivity.
Low-Acceleration / Regulated Path
ConservativeStrict compute caps, global licensing, slower innovation, strong safety constraints.
Wildcards
High UncertaintyEnergy breakthroughs, new algorithmic paradigms, brain-computer interfaces, digital deflation, catastrophic misuse, or governance shocks.
Core Documents
Baseline Model
Evidence-based trajectories for AI development. Capability paths, alignment, hardware, socioeconomic impacts, and scenario analysis.
Timeline Predictions
When do Kurzweil, Amodei, Altman, LeCun, Metaculus, and others expect AGI, ASI, and the Singularity?
Background Theories
Foundational constraints from physics, economics, and systems theory that support or challenge AI predictions.
Latest Updates
View all →Week of 2026-07-05
The Fable 5 off-switch is released after 19 days, two labs ship frontier models through government approval lists, and Claude Sonnet 5 shows the price of agentic work falling faster than the ceiling is rising.
Week of 2026-06-28
Five Eyes agencies put a 'months, not years' clock on offensive AI cyber capability while Google loses an unusual concentration of senior researchers to its IPO-bound rivals.
Week of 2026-06-21
Fable 5 stays dark for a second week as the suspension turns competitor-instigated and legally contested; 42 state AGs open a consumer-protection front against OpenAI.