Realistic Futures
of AI
A living research knowledge base tracking plausible AI development paths from 2025 to 2040. Evidence-based, updated weekly, grounded in constraints.
Software Development Milestones
Plausible Scenarios (2030–2040)
Moderately Accelerating Path
Most ProbableContinued model improvements, increasingly capable agents, AI-integrated teams. Partial AGI-like systems in narrow domains. No runaway recursive self-improvement.
High-Acceleration Path
OptimisticBreakthroughs in architecture or hardware. Rapid progress in tool-form agents. Semi-autonomous research assistants. Significant shift in scientific productivity.
Low-Acceleration / Regulated Path
ConservativeStrict compute caps, global licensing, slower innovation, strong safety constraints.
Wildcards
High UncertaintyEnergy breakthroughs, new algorithmic paradigms, brain-computer interfaces, digital deflation, catastrophic misuse, or governance shocks.
Core Documents
Baseline Model
Evidence-based trajectories for AI development. Capability paths, alignment, hardware, socioeconomic impacts, and scenario analysis.
Timeline Predictions
When do Kurzweil, Amodei, Altman, LeCun, Metaculus, and others expect AGI, ASI, and the Singularity?
Background Theories
Foundational constraints from physics, economics, and systems theory that support or challenge AI predictions.
Latest Updates
View all →Week of 2026-07-19
Two open-weights models reach the edge of the frontier in one week, a flagship deletes users' files unprompted, and Google's Pro model misses its date again — capability spreading outward while the controls reach only the hosted tier.
Week of 2026-07-12
A second cheap Opus-class agentic model in nine days, a government access gate that lifted after twelve, and a jailbreak found the day after — the gate certifies distribution, not containment.
Week of 2026-07-05
The Fable 5 off-switch is released after 19 days, two labs ship frontier models through government approval lists, and Claude Sonnet 5 shows the price of agentic work falling faster than the ceiling is rising.