Realistic Futures
of AI
A living research knowledge base tracking plausible AI development paths from 2025 to 2040. Evidence-based, updated weekly, grounded in constraints.
Software Development Milestones
Plausible Scenarios (2030–2040)
Moderately Accelerating Path
Most ProbableContinued model improvements, increasingly capable agents, AI-integrated teams. Partial AGI-like systems in narrow domains. No runaway recursive self-improvement.
High-Acceleration Path
OptimisticBreakthroughs in architecture or hardware. Rapid progress in tool-form agents. Semi-autonomous research assistants. Significant shift in scientific productivity.
Low-Acceleration / Regulated Path
ConservativeStrict compute caps, global licensing, slower innovation, strong safety constraints.
Wildcards
High UncertaintyEnergy breakthroughs, new algorithmic paradigms, brain-computer interfaces, digital deflation, catastrophic misuse, or governance shocks.
Core Documents
Baseline Model
Evidence-based trajectories for AI development. Capability paths, alignment, hardware, socioeconomic impacts, and scenario analysis.
Timeline Predictions
When do Kurzweil, Amodei, Altman, LeCun, Metaculus, and others expect AGI, ASI, and the Singularity?
Background Theories
Foundational constraints from physics, economics, and systems theory that support or challenge AI predictions.
Latest Updates
View all →Week of 2026-06-14
Anthropic ships Fable 5 — its most powerful public model — and within four days draws a jailbreak claim, a degradation backlash, and a U.S. order suspending foreign access; Apple routes Siri through Google's Gemini; the EU operationalizes content labelling; and the largest IPO on record lands inside the compute web.
Week of 2026-06-07
A draft AI executive order becomes law, Anthropic's raise finalizes at $65B on a wall of debt, Microsoft turns from partner into frontier competitor, and the first independent reliability science arrives.
Week of 2026-05-30
Claude Opus 4.8 ships with a calibration-first headline; Anthropic's valuation passes OpenAI's amid increasingly circular compute financing.