The default. Grounded — extrapolated from mechanisms that exist today. Every claim traceable.
Signal fires for 2036 · 2016 → 2026 → 2036
THE COMPLEX PERSPECTIVE
: 2036
What still matters when machines think.
AI will change some things beyond recognition. Other things it will make more valuable — cooperation, verification, specification, judgment. This site computes those positions forward from mechanism, not from mood: six invariants, each argued from constraints that exist today and each playable as a toy. The cold field is the machine’s; the fires are yours. And when the planetarium show starts, you will always know.
Anchored
Projection
A targeting estimate. Defensible speculation, assumptions stated, dashed borders.
Cinema
Over the line, on purpose. The violet beam, the sprockets. You always know you crossed.
Six invariants · each with a mechanism and a toy
MODULE 01
Cooperation & Trust
Agent swarms multiply coordination problems; commitments stay human. Game theory appreciates.
The stag hunt, with agents MODULE 02Verification
Generating persuasive content is free. Verification becomes the scarce good — epistemic hygiene compounds.
The verification market MODULE 03Specification
Execution is cheap; transferring intent is the bottleneck. Communication becomes spec-writing.
The literal-minded agent MODULE 04Judgment
Advice is free; owning irreversible decisions is not. Accountability doesn’t delegate.
Robustness vs. optimization MODULE 05Lean Thinking
When building costs nothing, building the wrong thing is the dominant waste.
The direction game MODULE 06Incentives
Rules now govern mixed human–machine populations. Mechanism design gets a bigger job.
Policy as a gameStart anywhere. Or read the decade test first — the 2016 edition graded against what actually happened — and the baseline, the one shared world all six scenes inhabit.