Source1999 ed.214 pp.
Where to go in the book
Chapter map
Page numbers are the printed pages of the 1999 Center for the Study of Intelligence edition, and every citation here resolves to this table. Reading the PDF? Add 28 — printed page 95 is PDF page 123.
| Ch. | Title | Page |
|---|---|---|
| Part I — Our Mental Machinery | ||
| 1 | Thinking About Thinking | 1 |
| 2 | Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There To Be Seen? | 7 |
| 3 | Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know? | 17 |
| Part II — Tools for Thinking | ||
| 4 | Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information | 31 |
| 5 | Do You Really Need More Information? | 51 |
| 6 | Keeping an Open Mind | 65 |
| 7 | Structuring Analytical Problems | 85 |
| 8 | Analysis of Competing Hypotheses | 95 |
| Part III — Cognitive Biases | ||
| 9 | What Are Cognitive Biases? | 111 |
| 10 | Biases in Evaluation of Evidence | 115 |
| 11 | Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect | 127 |
| 12 | Biases in Estimating Probabilities | 147 |
| 13 | Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting | 161 |
| Part IV — Conclusions | ||
| 14 | Improving Intelligence Analysis | 173 |
Frontp. vii–xxv
Three short pieces precede Part I: the Author’s Preface (p. vii), Douglas MacEachin’s Foreword (p. ix), and Jack Davis’s Introduction (p. xiii).