Price over ten-year average real earnings — the valuation gauge built to smooth the cycle out of the P/E. 08/2026 print: 42.39, the second-highest ever — above the 1929 peak (~32) and within two points of the all-time record 44.19 from Dec 1999. Long-run average ~18 (the FT/Shiller chart Barchart posted, https://x.com/Barchart/status/2086584511614030048).
Two framing tells in how the print travels. Bilello’s “Almost there…” is a countdown to the record — the record-anticipation cousin of Records in a growing series, though CAPE, being a ratio, makes a record mean more than an index-point one. Barchart’s “far surpassing the Crash of 1929 🚨” picks the crash analogy as anchor — the reference class does the scaring (Reference-class shopping). And the sober caveat: CAPE’s own mean has drifted upward since ~1990 (accounting changes, payout ratios, rate regimes), so distance from the 1881-onward average overstates the extreme. Like the Buffett Indicator, its honest use is decade-scale expected returns, not timing — CAPE crossed its 1929 level in 2017 and the market nearly doubled after.
Japan 1989 traded at 99x on the same yardstick — Now show Japan — which is both the comfort (we’re far from the worst case) and the warning (there is a lot of room above “second-highest ever”).
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