Total US market cap over GDP — Buffett’s 2001 “best single measure” of valuation. At 241% (08/2026) it screens as the most expensive market ever, above the dot-com peak.
The denominator is the problem: the numerator is the global earnings power of US-listed firms, the denominator only domestic output. As S&P revenue went global, the ratio drifted structurally upward — a record here is partly a mismatch, not only froth. The chart Barchart itself posted (“Foreign Accent”, Jonas Svallin/FactSet) carries an adjusted ratio correcting for this: ~145%, elevated but below its dot-com-era equivalent — the posted image contradicts the “most expensive in history 🤯” caption. A clean double specimen of Check the stat against its own chart and Records in a growing series (the unadjusted ratio trends, so records are cheap).
Still not a clean bill: 145% is high, and the indicator’s real use is decade-scale expected-return setting, not timing.