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Margin debt and net credit balances

FINRA’s net credit balance (investor cash minus margin debt) hit −$1.06T in June 2026 — past −$1T for the first time, margin debt at a record $1.50T, +$895B since the 2022 bear. Why the sign matters (the “Little Margin for Error” chart’s own caption): investors who owe more than they hold in cash are structurally forced to sell into declines — leverage converts dips into supply. The 2008 contrast: net credit stayed positive through the GFC.

Two qualifiers. The series has been negative continuously since 2013 and scales with market cap, so dollar records are partly Records in a growing series — the ratio to market cap is the honest version. And the same weeks, Vanda’s retail net-flow index fell to its lowest since the pandemic ($450M/day vs ~$1.9B at the early-2025 peak; Barchart: “slowest in 6+ years”) — cash buying is drying up while leverage sets records. Read together: the marginal buyer is levered and the cash cushion behind the melt-up is thinning, which is a fragility statement, not a timing signal.