The FT chart behind “you have 12 months left to buy the Magnificent 7”: combined FCF of Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon collapsed from ~$230B (2024) to ~$85B (2026) — AI capex is eating the cash machines — and consensus then projects an explosion to ~$640B by 2030 as capex rolls off and AI revenue lands.
Both halves matter. The realized half explains the present: the FCF collapse is why even mega-caps started issuing debt (the wave behind Credit leads equities) and why the “cash-rich tier” label needs a date on it. The projected half is the bull case in its purest form — and it is consensus estimates (shaded “Estimates” on the chart’s own axis), from the same analyst cohort whose long-term growth expectations sit at record highs (Analyst growth expectations as contrarian gauge). The 2030 hockey stick assumes capex stops growing AND the revenue arrives; it is the discounted story, not data. “12 months left to buy” converts an estimate into a deadline — urgency is the seller’s tell.