Growth stocks are the equity market’s long bonds: their value sits in cash flows far in the future, so rising real rates compress them first and hardest. Value (near-term cash flows, dividends), small caps, and commodity-heavy EM/international are shorter-duration or hard-asset-adjacent. Specimen: Bilello’s 2026-YTD chart (as of 7/24/26) — value and small caps +18.8%, EM +15.5%, SPY +8.9%, large growth −0.4%, Mag 7 −4.2% — the same rotation as the gold/NDX turn (Ratio charts), expressed inside the equity market, in the same week long yields hit 19-year highs.
Two side-effects worth remembering. A violent leadership rotation puts 52-week highs and lows on the tape simultaneously — the exact signature that triggers the Hindenburg Omen, so a “crash signal” cluster can partly be a rotation being detected. And a seven-month YTD chart is a horizon cherry-pick: the same picture over any multi-year window since 2010 crowns the Mag 7 — one good half-year vindicates a regime call, not a strategy.
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